Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38
000
ACUS11 KWNS 281903
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281902
LAZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-282100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1828
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 PM CST MON NOV 28 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF FAR EAST TEXAS...WESTERN AND NORTHERN
LOUISIANA...AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN ARKANSAS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 501

VALID 281902Z - 282100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 501 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE RISK -- INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES -- CONTINUES IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.  GREATEST INSTABILITY -- PER
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS -- REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE WATCH...WHERE A FEW
NEW CELLS ARE DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE SURGING COLD FRONT.  WITH
LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERED IN THIS AREA HOWEVER...MARGINAL HAIL AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN RISK.

FARTHER EAST INTO LOUISIANA...MORE BACKED/SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS PERSIST.  THOUGH INSTABILITY IS MORE LIMITED IN THIS
PART OF THE AREA...MORE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT THE
GREATEST TORNADO RISK RESIDES IN THIS REGION (I.E. WITHIN TORNADO
WATCH 501).  WHILE A FEW CELLS HAVE SHOWN SOME LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AT
TIMES...CONVECTION STILL REMAINS GENERALLY DISORGANIZED AT THIS
POINT.  GRADUAL INCREASES IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY ARE STILL EXPECTED
HOWEVER...AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
SYSTEM ROTATES EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.

..GOSS.. 11/28/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON   30009153 29989214 29959395 30219495 31729454 32229372
            33539212 31299155 30009153




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.