000
ACUS11 KWNS 240453
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240452
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-240615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1454
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CNTRL MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 437...

VALID 240452Z - 240615Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 437
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS WW 437 IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1007 MB LOW OVER ECNTRL
MT WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING NWWD ACROSS NCNTRL MT. A BROKEN LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ALONG THE SFC TROUGH WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 F. RAP DATA IS
STILL ANALYZING MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF NRN AND ERN MT
AND THIS WILL FUEL THE STORMS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN WCNTRL MT
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL ALSO HELP TO SUPPORT THE
CONVECTION INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE WSR-88D VWP AT GLASGOW MT
SHOWS 50 TO 60 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE
LOWEST 3 KM AGL. THIS ALONG WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD
HELP MAINTAIN THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS WW 437. AS THE BROKEN LINE OF
STORMS MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MO RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHER SEVERE
STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF GLASGOW AS A 30 TO 40 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 07/24/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...

LAT...LON   45900625 45070622 44310541 44520381 45750318 46530390
            46420527 45900625