Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 031919
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031918
OHZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-032115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1598
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 PM CDT MON AUG 03 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN IND...CNTRL/SRN OH...FAR NRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 031918Z - 032115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND A FEW LARGE HAIL REPORTS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WATCH ISSUANCE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.

DISCUSSION...19Z SFC OBSERVATIONS ILLUSTRATE A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE ACROSS E-CNTRL IND...WHERE OUTFLOW FROM AN OVERNIGHT MCS
INTERSECTS AN EWD-PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. IN RESPONSE...A BROKEN
LINE OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON...AIDED BY SOME
FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM A SUBTLE IMPULSE ALOFT PROGRESSING E/SEWD
ACROSS IL. ADDITIONALLY...MODEST SFC CONVERGENCE EXTENDING TO THE
EAST MAY FAVOR FURTHER INITIATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL OH OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...HI-RES GUIDANCE OFFERS CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES REGARDING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...LENDING SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON.

MORNING RAOBS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7 C/KM
EXIST OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH AMPLE
DIURNAL HEATING AND SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70...HAS YIELDED MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG. REGIONAL VWP
DATA EXHIBIT ENHANCED LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW /E.G. 40 KTS AT 3 KM FROM
KILN/. THUS...ANY STRONGER CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...CONSIDERING THE WELL-MIXED BL. MOREOVER...EFFECTIVE
SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS SHOULD AID UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION SUFFICIENTLY FOR
AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN CELLS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE.
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

..PICCA/HART.. 08/03/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON   40188567 40558527 40818347 40748124 40688091 39598113
            38728222 38488284 38598405 38748495 39368587 40188567




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