


Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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545 ACUS11 KWNS 101920 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101920 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-102145- Mesoscale Discussion 1631 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Areas affected...north-central into eastern Nebraska...far southeast South Dakota...western Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 101920Z - 102145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to develop close to 21Z over north-central Nebraska, with activity spreading east/southeast across the Missouri River this evening. A tornado and hail risk may exist initially, following by a corridor of significant damaging wind potential. DISCUSSION...Satellite and radar indicate an arcing line of elevated thunderstorms over northeast NE, spreading into southeast SD and western IA. This activity is supported by theta-e advection with southwest flow off the surface, with steep lapse rates aloft. Behind this activity, temporary subsidence and clearing exist over eastern NE. While initially cool, this air mass should destabilize again this evening. Meanwhile, a large CU field is currently developing over central and north-central NE, near a stationary front. Deep moisture convergence will persist in this area, with the cap being breached later this afternoon. Aiding cap removal are hot temperatures just downstream into northern KS/southern NE, where temperatures are over 100 F. Veering winds with height, combined with strong instability, will favor slow-moving supercells at first, with tornado and large hail risk. With time, a severe MCS is forecast, with increasing damaging wind potential. Significant wind gusts over 75 mph appear likely. ..Jewell/Mosier.. 07/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 41029794 41229927 41499983 41949999 42110000 42480001 42779985 43059917 43089837 43129680 42879615 42379563 41999555 41449565 41079604 40929644 40979723 41059787 41029794 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN