Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 220147
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220147
MNZ000-WIZ000-220245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1423
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0847 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NRN MN...AND NWRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 220147Z - 220245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF
WW 427 BETWEEN 02-03Z...WITH THIS THREAT SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF
NRN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL MN THROUGH THE LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT.  PARTS OF NWRN WI MAY HAVE A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
LATER TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A BOWING LINE OF
STORMS MOVING EWD AT 40-50 KT IN EAST-CENTRAL/SERN ND AND ADJACENT
FAR NERN SD.  A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM THE NRN EXTENT OF
THIS LINE OF STORMS...ENEWD TO INVOF INL AND THEN INTO ONTARIO TO
THE NORTH OF THE MN ARROWHEAD.  THE ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY REMAINS STRONGLY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
2500-4500 J/KG.  GIVEN FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS...THE WELL
ESTABLISHED FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EWD THIS
EVENING ACROSS NRN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL MN.  THE SRN EXTENT OF ANY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE MITIGATED BY A CAP AS OBSERVED WITH
THE 00Z MPX/ABR SOUNDINGS.  SOME INCREASE IN WLY MIDLEVEL WINDS MAY
ALSO AID IN AN ENHANCED WIND THREAT AS THIS MCS MOVES EWD.

..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 07/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

LAT...LON   45699210 45239454 45399603 46299624 47069602 47299557
            48549538 48929508 48699294 48168963 46749087 45699210




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