000
ACUS11 KWNS 212300
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212300
WVZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-NCZ000-220000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0761
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0600 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY / WRN WV / FAR SERN OH / WRN VA / ERN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 206...

VALID 212300Z - 220000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 206
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS
REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WATCH AREA THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...AS OF 2240Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN EWD-MOVING MCS FROM NEAR THE OH RIVER 40 SE
LUK-20 E JKL-30 E OF TYS.  THE KY SEGMENT OF THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
HAS REMAINED MOST PROGRESSIVE /AROUND 30 KT/ WHERE AN EXTENSIVE
TRAILING STRATIFORM REGION AND ASSOCIATED 40-45 KT REAR-INFLOW JET
/RIJ --SEE CURRENT JKL VAD/ HAVE DEVELOPED.  UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH RIJ-ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SYSTEM
COLD POOL SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FORWARD PROPAGATION --AND AN
ASSOCIATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT-- INTO WRN WV BY 22/00Z.

FARTHER S INTO ERN TN...THE MCS IS MUCH MORE FRAGMENTED AND NOT AS
PROGRESSIVE.  NONETHELESS...ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OWING LARGELY TO CELL MERGERS SUBSEQUENT
WATER LOADING EFFECTS.

..MEAD.. 05/21/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON   35348421 36548384 36978377 37818382 38698409 38928382
            38848288 38728239 38158121 37688094 37318158 36838191
            36388207 35828303 35258325 34998349 35018392 35348421