Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 181901
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181900
ARZ000-OKZ000-182000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1571
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/WRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 181900Z - 182000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE NOTED WITH
CONVECTION ACROSS ERN OK AND WRN AR.

DISCUSSION...WEAK MID-LEVEL CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED
ACROSS NERN OK WITH SEVERAL UPDRAFTS APPARENTLY NOW ROOTED IN RICHER
NEAR-BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT.  AIR MASS OVER ERN OK/WRN AR IS
CHARACTERIZED BY MID 70S SFC DEW POINTS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90F.
IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR WHAT INITIATED THIS ACTIVITY BUT MODESTLY
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE ORDER OF
30-40KT EXIST ACROSS THIS REGION.  SRX VWP DEPICTS 40KT AT 5KM.  IN
ADDITION TO LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO
BE NOTED...PER WDSSII WHERE ALGORITHM SUGGESTS HAIL GREATER THAN 1.5
INCH OVER ADAIR COUNTY OK.

..DARROW/WEISS.. 08/18/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   35949421 35109340 34249398 34409539 35729567 35949421



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