Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 270435
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270434
UTZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-270700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1767
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NV...SWRN UT...NWRN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 270434Z - 270700Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED
SEVERE HAIL OR WIND ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN.

DISCUSSION...STORMS CONTINUE TO REGENERATE THIS EVENING AS FLOW
ALOFT IS MERIDIONAL AND ALIGNED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PLUME. IN ADDITION TO LOCALIZED LIFT DUE TO SLY
UPSLOPE FLOW IN FAVORED AREAS...LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEARS...WITH MOST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING AN INCREASE BY 09Z MAINLY OVER NWRN AZ AND SWRN UT BUT
PERHAPS NEAR THE NV BORDER AS WELL.

WHILE MOST OF THE STORMS ARE ELONGATED DUE TO THE SHEAR...THIS MAY
HELP A FEW CORES TO BE LONGER-LIVED WITH A THREAT OF HAIL. ANY SMALL
BOWS THAT MAY DEVELOP COULD CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AS DOWNDRAFTS WILL
CONTAIN A LOT OF PRECIPITATION.

AS STORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS...FLASH FLOODING MAY
BECOME A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IF THE SLOW-MOVING NORTH/SOUTH
ORIENTED BAND OF STORMS SUGGESTED BY THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS
VERIFIES.

..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 09/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF...LKN...

LAT...LON   36171288 34941269 34561279 34491322 34721429 34911509
            35331537 36111515 37341461 38241441 38721440 38871405
            38731366 38491341 37821298 37491291 36171288



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