Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 110230
SPC MCD 110229

Mesoscale Discussion 0063
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0829 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018

Areas affected...Southeast Mississippi...much of southern Alabama
and the Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 110229Z - 110500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms may increase in coverage and intensity through
evening, with a brief tornado or localized severe wind gust
possible. A watch is not anticipated at this time due to expected
isolated nature of potential severe storms.

DISCUSSION...A moist and generally weakly unstable air mass has been
in place across the region for hours, along with moderately strong
southwest flow aloft. With little focus at the surface, storm
activity has been largely disorganized except for a few confluence
bands at times from southern MS into the FL Panhandle. Despite weak
surface winds, shear profiles have aided a few of these storms with
some weak rotation at times.

Recently, an increase in storm coverage has occurred over the
northern Gulf of Mexico, and now affecting parts of southeast LA,
southern MS/AL and the FL Panhandle. These storms should continue to
shift northward with time.

Shear profiles are expected to become slightly more favorable over
the next several hours as a low-amplitude upper feature develops
northeastward. Instability will remain nearly the same, except for
some increase northward into central AL where MUCAPE is currently
very meager. Given the increase in storm coverage as well as shear,
and some upper support, isolated severe storms are possible. The
surface air mass remains marginally buoyant, and may support a brief
tornado risk with any sustained supercell, within one or more
clusters and/or embedded within a larger precipitation shield.

..Jewell/Thompson.. 02/11/2018

...Please see for graphic product...


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