Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 301152 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 752 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING HUMIDITY TODAY AS RIDGE AXIS SURFACE AND ALOFT SHIFTS EAST. DEW POINTS WILL PUSH BACK WELL INTO THE 60S LATE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME EARLY DAY LOW LEVEL CAPPING TO OVERCOME AND WARM MID LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST WILL WILL PROVIDE LIFT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WARM AND MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LIKELY POPS MAINTAINED INTO SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS REGION. AS SHORTWAVE EXIST SHOWERS WILL DECREASE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY BUT NO REAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. BY TUESDAY FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WARM AND QUITE HUMID AHEAD OF THE FRONT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY...AND SHOULD MANAGE TO DEFLECT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. COLD FRONT COULD GET CLOSE ENOUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SCATTERED CUMULUS IS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WEST OF DUJ AND PIT. CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD PRESENT CROSSWIND ISSUES AT SOME AIRPORTS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE CHANCE FOR 15-20 KT GUSTS TO DEVELOP. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT TERMINALS UNTIL AT LEAST 06Z SUNDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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