Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 190149 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 949 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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EVENING UPDATE TO TREND POPS A BIT LOWER ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WITH SHORTWAVE NOW WELL SOUTH BUT A FEW STREAMERS ARE DEVELOPING OFF THE LAKES IN COLD ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST FLOW. NO OTHER CHANGES...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO BASE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN OHIO WILL SKIRT THE EASTERN OHIO COUNTIES WITH BULK OF SHOWERS PASSING WELL SOUTH INTO WEST VIRGINIA. ELSEWHERE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAP THE WARM LAKES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES AND I-80 CORRIDOR. STILL A CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW FLAKES TO MIX IN ACROSS THE HIGHER SOUTHEAST RIDGES TOWARD DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS EAST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN WESTERLY WITH DEEP DRYING WORKING INTO REGION. NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS WITH CLOUDS HELPING TO KEEP READINGS FROM FALLING OFF DRAMATICALLY. 18Z MODEL RUNS SHOW A BIT QUICKER EXIT OF UPPER TROUGH WITH SURFACE HIGH MOVING TO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA BY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO BEGIN TO BREAK OUT FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON MOST LOCATIONS. CONTINUED QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S FAR NORTH TO LOWER 50S FAR SOUTH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISING UP TOWARD +4C SHOULD ALLOW FOR A POOR DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALL ON MONDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SERIES OF WAVES WHICH WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE FIRST WAVE LOOKS RATHER HIGHLY SHEARED AND MOISTURE STARVED ON MONDAY...WITH A LAYER OF DRY AIR BELOW IT LIKELY TO ERODE WHAT LITTLE BIT OF PRECIPITATION MAY BE GENERATED FROM THE WEAK ELEVATED SATURATION AND LIFT IT MANAGES TO MUSTER. A DEEPER WAVE WILL MOVE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FOR MONDAY NIGHT...DECREASING ITS TILT AS IT DOES SO. THIS WILL AGAIN WORK A BIT WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR TOWARD THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE YIELDING A WINDOW OF REDUCED CHANCES OF RAINFALL IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING IT. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...RAIN SHOULD AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA SLOWLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH GOING INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OWING TO PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR ALOFT. IT IS THIS WAVE THAT SEEMS TO BE THE CULPRIT IN REALLY HALTING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN. AS IT DIVES INTO THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ON TUESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO FAVOR A CLOSING OFF OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...IN ADVANCE OF THE EVENTUAL CUTTING OFF OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA FROM THE POLAR JET. FRIES && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP ON HOW FAR EAST THE CLOSED/CUT OFF LOW WILL END UP AFTER MID-WEEK. CURRENT SOLUTIONS ARE AGAIN TOO CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA TO KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...EVEN STILL...CLOUDS ARE STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN A PLAYER THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. FRIES && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... RAIN SHOWERS ARE ON THE WANE...BUT THINK THAT MANY TERMINALS COULD STILL SEE A PASSING SHOWER THROUGH THE EVENING. GUSTS HAVE COME TO AN END AT MOST TERMINALS AS WELL...WHICH WILL ALSO DIMINISH THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ALL SITES WILL RISE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. GUSTS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE CONTAINED TO DUJ AND LBE. .AVIATION /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPR TROFG CONTS IN THE UPR OH REGION. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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