Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 021806 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 206 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL MAINTAIN DAILY RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 130 PM THE FRONT HAS PROGRESSED SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD A LATROBE TO NEW MARTINSVILLE CORRIDOR. BEHIND THIS LINE...ORGANIZED SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WILL BE UNLIKELY AS DEEPER MOISTURE AGAIN STREAM NORTHEASTWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHEAST OF THIS LINE...SURFACE-BASED CAPES WILL INCREASE ENOUGH TO LARGELY OVERCOME A BIT OF A CAP AROUND 8 KFT AND REALIZE UP TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE BASED UPON MODIFIED SOUNDINGS FOR A BIT MORE MODEST SURFACE MOISTURE THAN THE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTING. DAYTIME INSOLATION HAS LARGELY MADE UP FOR THE LIMITED SURFACE MOISTURE BY ALLOWING AFTERNOON TO TEMPERATURES TO JUMP INTO THE 70S ON A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BASIS AT LEAST IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. IT IS ONLY HERE THAT A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS. AGAIN TODAY...SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER SUB 10 KFT FREEZING LEVELS AND SUBSTANTIAL POSITIVE AREA ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT OF HAIL. HI-RES GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE OPERATIONAL NAM BOTH POINT TOWARD COPIOUS RAINFALL-PRODUCING STORMS OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA THIS EVENING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ALREADY ISSUED EARLIER FOR THIS DUE TO 1 AND 3 HOUR GUIDANCE OF ABOUT ONE HALF AND NINE TENTHS OF AN INCH RESPECTIVELY IN THIS AREA. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL BE SLOWED INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER JET LOOKS TO ALIGN SOMEWHAT PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...YET ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY START THE FRONT MOVING EASTWARD BY LATE TUESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...ANY CLEARING ON TUESDAY WILL AGAIN SECONDARILY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DUE TO AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY. FRIES && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND RESULT IN CHANCES FOR RAIN AND UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... CLOSED LOW CENTER OVER VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA WILL TRANSITION EAST AND FILL AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY AND MOST OF SATURDAY DRY UNTIL THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MVFR/PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MRNG AS LOW LVL MOISTURE PERSISTS BEHIND AN EXITING SHORTWAVE. AN UPR TROF SHOULD MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS THRU LATE MRNG/ERLY AFTN BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED AS MIXING INCREASES CIG HEIGHTS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RETURNS MVFR RESTRICTION POTENTIAL TONIGHT ESP FOR PORTS S OF PIT. .OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ012-021- 509>514. && $$

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