Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 250829
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
430 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
BE IN CONTROL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER ILLINOIS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA LATER THIS MORNING...EXITING THE STATE AROUND MIDDAY.
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. WILL KEEP RATHER HIGH
POPS GOING THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EAST.
LAPSE RATES REMAIN MARGINAL FOR SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE. NOT TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...SO THINK SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES TODAY GENERALLY SUPPORT THE GFS MOS HIGHS...SO
WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

MODEL DATA SUGGEST UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. APPEARS A
WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THERE ARE
SOME WEAK SIGNALS IN THE MODEL DATA FOR A PRECIPITATION THREAT WITH
THIS FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL LIFT/DEEP
MOISTURE LOOKS MEAGER...SO WILL KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY FOR
NOW.

BY SUNDAY...IT APPEARS UPPER RIDGE AXIS MAY BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO
ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION FROM THE PLAINS SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGEST PRECIPITATION THREAT WON/T
ARRIVE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
RESTRICT THE POPS TO THOSE TIME PERIODS. IF THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS
LONGER THAN EXPECTED...POPS MAY DELAYED.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES...THE GFS MOS
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE
MOST PART...SO ONLY PLANNING MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE LONG TERM BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CENTRAL
INDIANA. MODELS ALSO MOVE A SURFACE LOW FROM THE PLAINS EARLY MONDAY
TO OUR REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY DAY 7.
THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IT LOOKS
LIKE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE WET WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING IN BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE A LULL IN RAIN CHANCES AROUND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS DRY SLOT TEMPORARILY MOVES INTO OUR REGION FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY FROM THE UPPER LOW.

MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND A LITTLE WARMER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE ALL BLEND TEMPERATURES. BY THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 250900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

MINOR TWEAKS TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

AWIPS DISTANCE SPEED TOOL SUGGESTS LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS ALL OF THE TERMINALS BY ISSUANCE TIME. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
AND MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS ALSO SUGGEST FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE
MOSTLY MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR BEFORE THE SHOWERS END BY 12Z AT HUF
AND LAF AND BY 14Z AT IND AND BMG WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. 23Z
RAPID REFRESH RADAR REFLECTIVITY PROGS LOOK TO HANDLE THE EVOLUTION
OF THE SHOWERS WELL. THEN...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR
WITH ONLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON CU AND THEN AN INCREASE IN AC AFTER
00Z SATURDAY. LIGHTNING TRENDS AND ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY SUGGEST
LEAVING OUT THUNDER MENTION OVERNIGHT.


SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL BECOME SOUTH EARLY AND WEST AND
GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS OR MORE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FINALLY...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 00Z
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...MK/JH

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