Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 032253
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
653 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORECAST UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN IT MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
UPPER RIDGING WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK BUT ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND HANGING
AROUND INTO THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER THE EASTERN
COUNTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND THE FORECAST
AREA SHOULD BE COMPLETELY DRY BY AROUND 7 PM. EARLY TONIGHT WILL
BE DRY...BUT AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
OVERNIGHT BRINGING RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES MAY NOT SEE
ANY PRECIPITATION BEFORE 8 AM WEDNESDAY...BUT NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES SHOULD SEE RAIN BEGIN SOMETIME IN THE 4-7 AM TIMEFRAME.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE SIMILAR IN THE MODELS AND A BLEND WAS
USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY
BRINGING RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DECENT UPPER FORCING IN ADDITION TO THE
FRONTOGENESIS CROSSING THE AREA AND THUS THOUGHT LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS WERE WARRANTED...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE
NORTH WHERE THE BEST UPPER FORCING WILL BE. WHILE THE FRONT WILL
BE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON...COLD ADVECTION ALOFT COULD
ALLOW LAPSE RATES TO REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDER
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ALSO OF NOTE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH.

SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS BUILDING OVER
THE AREA AND USHERS IN DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH THE UPPER LOW BRINGING DOWN COOL AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND THEN LINGER IN
THE VICINITY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. UNCERTAINTIES
IN WHERE THE FRONT WILL END UP EACH DAY LEAD TO DAILY CHANCES FOR
RAIN THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  HOWEVER IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASH
OUT EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 040000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 653 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

COLD FRONT AND TRAILING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA AFTER 08Z AND THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN TO MVFR FOR MOST OF
WEDNESDAY AFTER AROUND 11Z. BRIEF IFR IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...BUT GFS LAMP AND SREF CEILING PROGS SUGGEST CHANCES ARE
TOO LOW TO MENTION. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END OR BECOME SPARSE ENOUGH
AFTER 21Z WEDNESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...THAT WILL NOT INCLUDE THEM.
ALSO...WOULD NOT RULE OUT EMBEDDED THUNDER. HOWEVER...CHANCES TOO
LOW TO MENTION.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH LAF AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY...HUF AND IND
AROUND 18Z AND BMG AFTER 20Z. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY NEAR AND
BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TONIGHT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
TO NORTHWEST TO 20 KNOTS WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE GUSTS TO NEAR 30
KNOTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...MK


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