Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 030416
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1216 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

CALM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE END OF THE WEEK...
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 954 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

0145Z UPDATE...FOG BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN THE LAST HOUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE THE MAJORITY OF RAIN OCCURRED
IN THE LAST 24 HR PERIOD. INCREASED FOG COVERAGE TO AREAS FROM
PATCHY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. DEBATING ABOUT WHETHER
TO ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR FOG...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR
NOW AND WAIT TO SEE HOW MUCH DEVELOPS EARLY TONIGHT. FOG ALREADY
COVERED IN HWO...FORECAST...AND GRAPHICAL WX STORY AT THE MOMENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

REMNANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY LINGERING OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES CLOSEST TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
RECENTLY MOVED THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER
OF CENTRAL INDIANA IS CURRENTLY DRY WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTHWEST OF LAFAYETTE. STILL EXPECT CLEARING
TONIGHT THOUGH AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
CREATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH THE CLEARING
SKIES. THIS WAS CAPTURED BEST BY THE COOLER GFS. SOME OF THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY EVEN DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S...THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO
THURSDAY WHEN SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL PROVIDE AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. AT THIS TIME...THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING A BIT IN REGARD
TO THURSDAY/S FORECAST. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE OVERDOING CONVECTIVE
CHANCES FOR THURSDAY...BUT THE NAM AND EURO ARE TRENDING TOWARD A
DRY FORECAST. FOR NOW...WILL COVER THIS DISCREPANCY WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY POP-UP DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN REGARD TO POPS AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WILL COVER WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW...BUT THESE WILL MOST LIKELY BE INCREASED TO LIKELY IN FUTURE
FORECAST ISSUANCES.

TEMPS...MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE WEAK WARMING TREND...SO WENT
WITH ALLBLEND FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

BROAD RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUCKLE AT THE END OF THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO
AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
ENABLE A COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. HIGH TEMPS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS THE COOLEST SEEN IN THE REGION SINCE THE MIDDLE
OF AUGUST...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. RETURN FLOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING SCATTERED CONVECTION BACK NORTH
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 030600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1216 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

VISIBILITIES WILL BE A PROBLEM AT THE SITES UNTIL AN HOUR OR TWO
AFTER SUNRISE WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...HIGH PRESSURE AND
CALM WINDS. EXPECT DENSE FOG AND VLIFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IF THEY
HAVEN/T ALREADY AT KBMG...WITH LIFR TO POSSIBLY LOWER AT KHUF AND
IFR AT KLAF AND KIND WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS. AFTER AROUND 13-14Z
SHOULD SEE FOG MIX OUT AND VFR BE THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING. CALM WINDS THROUGH THE
NIGHT INCREASING TO 3-8 KTS OUT OF GENERALLY THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
AROUND 13-14Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...CP

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