Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 260653
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
253 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.UPDATE...

The Long Term section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

A frontal system is expected to move through the area Wednesday
night or Thursday morning. Another frontal system may affect
the area towards the end of the week, and on into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight/...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Dry weather expected through tonight as surface high pressure ridge
hold over the area. Some passing high level cloud expected from time
to time.

Low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS lows for tonight look OK
for the most part.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday through Friday/...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Model data in general agreement on frontal passage occurring either
Wednesday night or Thursday morning. Lift appears to mainly located
in the vicinity of the front and in the post frontal zone, so don`t
think there will be much activity in the warm sector ahead of cold
front. For this reason, think most of Wednesday will be dry, with
the precipitation threat arriving in the western zones towards
evening. Will go with PoPs for mostly Wednesday night and Thursday
morning coinciding with the best lift. Precipitation threat should
diminish by Thursday afternoon as main lift and upper trough move
off to the northeast.

Will keep Thursday night dry with surface high pressure moving over
the area.

Models suggest decent warm advection will develop by Friday
afternoon in advance of the next upper disturbance rounding the
Plains long wave trough. Will go with chance PoPs on Friday
afternoon.

Given a continued trend of slowing the midweek frontal system down,
will raise the GFS MOS highs and lows for Wednesday and Wednesday
night about a category. Progged low level thicknesses also suggest
the lows Thursday night are probably too cool. Will raise the
guidance lows 3-5 degrees in that period.

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/...
Issued at 253 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Models continue to suggest a very active long term period. Warm
frontal zone is likely to set up somewhere in the region, likely
south, early in the weekend with widespread precipitation and likely
thunderstorms along and north of the boundary. A low pressure system
will organize and move into the Great Lakes, pushing the warm front
north and allowing the area into the warm sector, before the cold
front swings through the area Sunday night. Thus, expect a wet
weekend with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
Precipitation potential with the upper low and wraparound will
necessitate some low chances for showers into Monday.

These multiple rounds of showers and storms could pose a hydrologic
threat and will merit monitoring as the week wears on, especially
with the potential for prior precipitation during the short term
period. Even accounting for the GFS tendency to overdo moisture,
precipitable water values over the region this weekend will likely
approach and perhaps even briefly exceed the 99th percentile value
for the time of year climatologically speaking. River interests and
those in flood prone areas should remain alert to the forecast as
the week wears on.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 26/0600Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 100 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

VFR conditions will be the prevailing flight category for entire TAF
period at KIND and KBMG.  However, conditions could deteriorate to
MVFR category by this afternoon at KLAF and KHUF as the next system
approaches. Winds will be southerly and increasing this afternoon
with sustained speeds of 12 to 16 kts and gusts up to 24 kts.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...TDUD/JH



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