Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KIND 271123
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
623 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

STRONG LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND AN UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS ONTARIO TO OHIO WILL MOVE EASTWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES OUR WAY BY LATE TONIGHT.

IN THE SHORT TERM...WE QUICKLY TRANSITION TO A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
A SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO BECOME MUCH WARMER THIS WEEKEND.

IN THE LONG TERM A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION LATE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD SUNDAY...BUT THEN A
LITTLE COOLER AFTER THAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE TODAY AS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO MOVES EASTWARD. WEATHER
DEPICTION INDICATES MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE AREA AND A FETCH
OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN MAY PRODUCE A CHANCE OF FLURRIES OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF OUR REGION LATER TODAY.  MODELS INDICATE A THERMAL
TROUGH AT 850 MB ALSO PUSHING INTO OUR REGION LATER TODAY.

TONIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST MOVES TO CENTRAL INDIANA BY DAYBREAK. MENTIONED A FEW
FLURRIES FAR NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL BE
THE RULE.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT WITH A MOS BLEND MOST AREAS...BUT
TWEAKED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS TODAY WITH LOTS
OF CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

FRIDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS OUR AREA.  FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD WITH NEAR STEADY
TEMPERATURES.

A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
RESULT A CONTINUED WARMING TREND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE WARMING TREND A LITTLE SATURDAY AS MODELS DEVELOP A
LOW LEVEL INVERSION.  EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS SATURDAY BELOW THE
INVERSION.  WILL ALSO CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST HALF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS MORE MOISTURE MOVES INTO OUR
REGION.  SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES.  IN MOST CASES...WENT NEAR A
MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.  LATEST SUPERBLEND SEEMS KIND OF HIGH WITH
CHANCE POPS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH SINCE MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE
LACKING.  HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS FRONT
ALSO SEEMS TO BE LACKING MOISTURE...SO WILL NOT INCREASE PRECIP
CHANCES AT THIS POINT.  THAT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...KEEPING LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY.  TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR DURATION OF LONG TERM PERIOD.  THIS
MEANS HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 27/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 617 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR TODAY.
EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN AT MVFR CATEGORY INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
TAF SITES AT THAT POINT...AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
CATEGORY. VFR WILL BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY FROM THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE END OF TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY TODAY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 TO 14 KTS. EXPECT WINDS
TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...AND BECOME SOUTHERLY TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.