Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 301634
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1234 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A SURFACE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE...FOLLOWED BY A FAR MORE
POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW ON HALLOWEEN...WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE
PERIOD TO END THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE FIRST CHANCES FOR
SNOWFLAKES COMING HALLOWEEN NIGHT...AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
YOUNG SEASON FOLLOWING ALONG FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A WEAK SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WILL HAVE TO MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST
AFTER ABOUT 21Z. MOISTURE IS A SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR.

THICKNESSES SUGGEST WARMER MOS BLEND IS PREFERABLE...AND EXPECT
HIGHS TODAY TO GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON HALLOWEEN AND HALLOWEEN
NIGHT...WHEN A FAR MORE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SWING THROUGH
THE REGION. SYNOPTIC FORCING IS ADEQUATE BUT MESOSCALE FORCING IN
THE FORM OF EXTREMELY STRONG FRONTOGENESIS MERITS THE LIKELY POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WHILE
DRIER AIR DOES MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD
LINGER THAT...COUPLED WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION...AND POTENTIAL
LAKE ENHANCEMENT...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE A THREAT ACROSS THE AREA.
VERY WARM GROUND WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY ACCUMULATION AS SNOW
SHOULD MELT FAIRLY QUICKLY UPON CONTACT WITH THE GROUND...BUT
COULD SEE A DUSTING ON ELEVATED SURFACES FRIDAY NIGHT.

IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD EASILY SEE GUSTS 30 TO
35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS AS STRONG BRIEFLY
INTO THE EVENING FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM FOR WFO IND ENDS ON NOVEMBER 1ST AND
SOME NEIGHBORS HAVE ALSO ALREADY SHUT DOWN THEIR PROGRAMS FOR THE
SEASON...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FREEZE HEADLINES AT THE MOMENT. DAY
SHIFT MAY WISH TO DISCUSS FURTHER...AND COORDINATE AGAIN WITH
OTHER NEIGHBORS WHO HAVE NOT YET ENDED THEIR PROGRAMS ON IF IT IS
NECESSARY TO ISSUE A HEADLINE FOR THE MORNING OF THE 1ST.

MODEL BLENDS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY WELL
AND FEW CHANGES WERE REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS ALL
OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MONDAY.  HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL BREAK
DOWN ON MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S.
BORDER.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  REGIONAL INITIALIZATION IS
HANDLING PATTERN WELL DUE TO GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY...SO WILL NOT
MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME.  AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE WILL BUMP HIGHS
INTO THE 50S FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 301800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR THROUGH FIRST HALF OF PERIOD...MVFR WITH GUSTY WINDS 2ND HALF.

UPPER WAVE WILL BRING MID CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. RAIN IS LIGHT SO
EVEN IN SHOWERS EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS.

STRONGER UPPER LOW MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SITES SEEING GUSTS AT OR OVER
30KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. /CAN ONLY ADD THESE TO KIND 30 HOUR TAF/.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...50

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