Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 200733
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
233 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

.UPDATE...
The SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, and SHORT TERM sections have been
updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 233 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

A couple of cold fronts will bring chances for rain to mainly
northern parts of central Indiana on Tuesday as well as on Friday
night. Otherwise high pressure will provide dry conditions.
Temperatures will be up and down, varying from near normal to well
below normal at times.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../Today/
Issued at 233 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

Quiet weather is expected today with mainly high clouds passing
across the area at times. At the moment believe that the high clouds
will be thin enough for mostly sunny to sunny conditions, but will
have to reevaluate again after sunrise.

The pressure gradient will tighten up once again today with high
pressure to the south and developing low pressure in southern Canada.
Thus expect some gusty winds to around 30 mph, especially north.

Enough sunshine should then be around to work with warm advection
and allow temperatures to reach the model blend`s mid 40s to lower
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Wednesday night/
Issued at 233 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

Dry conditions will continue tonight ahead of an approaching cold
front. Breezy conditions will continue north.

On Tuesday the cold front will move through the area. More models
are coming on board with some light showers in the afternoon with
the front. However, it still appears that moisture remains pretty
limited with just a narrow band of deeper moisture along the front.

Will keep the blend`s low PoPs Tuesday afternoon across roughly the
north half of the area, although confidence is low to medium due to
the limited moisture. Some low PoPs will linger in the far east
early Tuesday evening as the front exits.

More gusty winds can be expected with the front as some of stronger
winds aloft mix down. At the moment it looks like gusts around 30
mph are possible.

Wednesday and Wednesday night will be dry with high pressure
returning.

The blend`s temperatures look reasonable, with near normal
temperatures Tuesday followed by a return to below normal for
Wednesday behind the front.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
Issued at 127 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

Models and ensembles in good agreement that high pressure will
result in dry weather through Friday. Then, a frontal system and
upper wave will bring the threat for showers to all or parts of
central Indiana Friday night and Saturday. Forecast builder suggests
precipitation type Friday night and Saturday morning as rain. This
looks reasonable with surface temperatures well above freezing.

Temperatures will warm to near normal Friday and Saturday,
otherwise, below normal temperatures are expected well ahead of the
frontal system on Thursday and behind the system on Sunday per the
blend.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 20/06Z TAFs/...
Issued at 1130 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

VFR through the period.

High pressure will move across the region through the period, with
clear or mostly clear skies expected.

Winds will gradually become more south/southwesterly with time.
Expect some gusts to around 20KT at the sites from mid morning
on.

No significant obstructions to visibility anticipated during the
period.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...NIELD


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