Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KIND 270849
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
449 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS OCCASIONAL
UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY BEFORE
WASHING OUT LATER THIS WEEK. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING. THERE
IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE...MAINLY OVER EAST CENTRAL INDIANA. AND THUS IS WHY THIS
AREA IS INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY.

AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES REGION...30-50 KT
SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND NEAR
THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...SURFACE HEATING WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK TO MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION.
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COULD
BECOME CONDUCIVE TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS WELL.

WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCES DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON.

UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUDINESS AND
RAIN CHANCES WHICH KEEPS HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

WEAK CHANCES FOR LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREAS THIS
EVENING...BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME TO AN END AS THE
BOUNDARY SINKS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

MODELS DEPICT THE UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT FOR AWHILE DURING THIS
PERIOD BEFORE AN UPPER RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THURSDAY IS STILL
LOOKING TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DISSIPATES AND UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN. MODELS
INDICATE THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF
CENTRAL INDIANA...NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

THEN LIKE A BROKEN RECORD WILL BRING BACK CHANCE POPS INTO THE
AREA BY FRIDAY AS MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MAY EJECT OUT OF
THE ROCKIES TROUGH TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE ON SATURDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. THERE WILL BE WARM/MOIST AIR IN PLACE FOR THE
FRONT TO WORK WITH...SO WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT THAT CAME IN WITH LATEST REGIONAL INITIALIZATION.

DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN BY SUNDAY...BUT AN UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COULD ADVECT ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FOR SOME WEAK DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE
SURFACE WILL ALSO PROVIDE AN AREA FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT.

TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL AFTER PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY...BUT WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 27/0900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 447 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT LOW/MID LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN AREA OF
VCTS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER 12-15Z AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.  VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
THE EXCEPTION AROUND VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS WHERE CONDITIONS COULD
DROP TO MVFR.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING
CLEARING SKIES TEMPORARILY.  LOOKS LIKE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND VERY
LIGHT WINDS...SOME LIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...DWM/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.