Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 200634

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
234 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.


Issued at 235 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

A weak surface and upper trough will exit Indiana this evening and
the few remaining showers and storms will dissipate around dusk.
Strong upper ridging will build in its wake and provide a warm and
mostly dry period from Wednesday into early next week. The front
currently in the northern Plains will run into this ridge Thursday
and bring a low chance for showers here but otherwise dry weather
will be the rule. With upper heights quite high, temperatures above
normal will prevail.

Model solutions were in fairly good agreement and followed.


.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...
Issued at 832 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

An upper and surface trough of low pressure over western Ohio
has produced an area of thunderstorms over east central sections
and this will continue a few hours into the evening before moving
on to the east.   Only other change was to add patchy fog most areas
late tonight given a fairly moist ground combined with some clearing
overnight.   Low temperatures will be in the lower to middle 60s and
only minor tweaks made to the rest of the near term period.


.SHORT TERM /Wednesday into Friday/...

Issued at 235 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Upper level ridging will dominate this period. With warming
subsidence occurring, the above normal temperature regime will
continue. Storms along a cold front today will approach Indiana
Thursday. Overall, the ridge should prevail and keep us dry but with
some uncertainty, will keep a low chance of precipitation with this
feature as it moves across our area early Thursday. Once this threat
leaves, no chance for rain is expected again before next week.

Guidance temperature blends, above normal, appeared reasonable and
were used.


.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...

Issued at 234 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Little change is expected during this forecast period. Weather
conditions should be dry with above normal temperatures.

ECMWF shows strong ridging remaining over the eastern 1/2 of the
United States...keeping all forcing dynamic well north of Indiana,
Meanwhile the ECMWF suggests strong High Pressure building beneath
the ridge...associated with the ongoing subsidence. With Mainly
Southwest flow in place across the area along with a very warm air
mass will trend daily highs and lows at or above the forecast
builder blend which is well above seasonal normals. Partly cloudy
nights and mostly sunny days should work nicely.


.AVIATION.../Discussion for 06Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1230 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Ridge of high pressure over Indiana will move on to the east
as an area of low pressure over the central plains moves towards
the upper midwest and great lakes.  This will be followed by a
2nd low pressure system moving into the southern plains Wednesday

Fog will be the main concern...especially north where temperature
dewpoint spreads already near zero.   Expect KLAF to drop to IFR
as well as KBMG.   Meanwhile KIND and KHUF may see a period of
MVFR fog towards daybreak.  All fog will burn off by mid morning
and VFR after that with Few-Sct CU.

Winds will be light overnight and south 5 to 8 knots after mid
morning Wednesday.




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