Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 261752
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
152 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017

.UPDATE...
The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 152 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017

An active weather pattern is taking shape for this weekend.

HIgh pressure over Indiana is expected to quickly move east...this
afternoon as a weak low pressure system over Illinois quickly
moves across Northern Indiana tonight. This will spread showers
and storms across the northern part of the state tonight.

A weak high pressure system will then settle across the area for
Saturday...bringing more dry weather for much of the day. Another
quick moving upper level weather disturbance will arrive in the
area on Saturday night. This will bring another round of showers
and storms to Indiana.

Dry weather is expected on Sunday morning before a cold front is
expected to pass on Sunday afternoon and evening. Once again, this
may bring a round of showers and storms.

Slim Storm chances will linger on Monday as broad cyclonic flow
will remain across the region...however many dry hours will be
expected.

With the exception of a secondary front bringing low chances for
storms Tuesday...expect primarily dry weather for much of next
week with seasonable temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 152 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017

Surface Analysis early this afternoon shows a ridge of high
pressure over the Indiana/Ohio boarder. Compact Low pressure was
found over western Illinois...surging eastward. Southerly flow was
in place across Indiana with dew points in the 50s. Water vapor
imagery shows a short wave associated with the over
Iowa...drifting NE.

GFS and NAM suggests the short wave will progress northeast
across NRN Illinois toward Michiana. Rapid refresh depicts
convection development mainly across the northern parts of the
state from 22Z-03Z...progressing eastward. Southern parts of the
convection area may be overdone. Forecast soundings show
convective temperatures in the middle 80s and 700mb temps are near
8C...providing good cap. Thus the HRRR appears a bit over done
with the southern extent of the showers and storm development this
evening. Still Pop will be warranted given the dynamics...just
will limit the highest pops to the northern areas as those
locations will be in a better position to receive precipitation.
Furthermore will taper pops off by 05Z-07Z as the wave aloft
should be quickly departing by that time.

Models appear in good agreement on temps and will stick close to
the blend on expected lows.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Saturday through Monday/...

Issued at 152 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017

Confidence in a dry Saturday is high. Forecast soundings and Time
heights reveal a dry column. Weak high pressure in the wake of the
departing low looks to be in place across the southern Great
lakes...providing northerly flow. However...this does result in a
warm front taking shape along the I-70 corridor...which will come
in to play later.

Thus will trend toward a partly cloudy sky on Saturday along with
a blend on highs which should result in an outstanding weather
day.

Things change on Saturday night as the high quickly departs and
another more organized shortwave pushes toward Central Indiana
from the Central Mississippi valley. Positioning for this wave is
much more favorable for Central Indiana...along with the some
surface convergence available due to the lingering boundary that
was previously mentioned. Models have backed off on the amount of
instability as compared to yesterday...with CAPES now generally
less than 1000 g/kg on Saturday night. While this will diminish
the severe threat somewhat...showers and storms still cannot be
ruled out given the expected dynamics. Will raise pops from the
MAVMOS here...and trend lows toward wetbulbs.

Confidence continues to grow for Dry weather on Sunday morning and
early afternoon. GFS and NAM suggest that Indiana will once again
be caught between two short wave at that time...as the Saturday
Night system will have departed and the the next wave appears to
be over Illinois...poised to arrive by late afternoon. Thus
forecaster builder willing...we will try to keep pops out of the
morning hours and begin a ramp up on Sunday mid-afternoon and
evening as the expected dynamics approach from the west. Again a
blend on highs will work fine.

GFS suggests the quick moving wave should depart the area by 03Z-
05Z. Forecast soundings suggest rapid drying and subsidence in its
wake. Thus will quickly taper pops toward dry on late Sunday night...trending
temps at or below the blend.

Models then depict broad cyclonic flow across the Great Lakes and
Indiana on Monday. Yet another short wave is suggested to push
through the circulation toward Central Indiana...but confidence
for precip will be low at this point given the generally expected
northwest flow of air to Central Indiana in the wake of the cold
front. Still at this time forecast soundings are suggesting steep
lapse rates and attainable convective temperatures...thus weak and
light instability showers in the afternoon do not appear out of
the question.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday Night/...
Issued at 349 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017

The main weather feature throughout the extended period will be
the broad low pressure system encompassing most of Ontario and
Quebec. Weak waves of energy will rotate through this system,
periodically triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms across
portions of central Indiana throughout the period. However,
precipitation chances will remain low throughout the period with
no higher than chance pops at any given time due to the
variability in the tracks and timing of the aforementioned waves.
Meanwhile, temperatures through the period will start out at or
above normal with a weak cooling trend on Tuesday and Wednesday,
then back to normal by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 261800Z TAFS/...

Issued at 1235 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017

Mid level vorticity center moving through eastern Iowa is progged
to move across northern Indiana this evening, with the vorticity
tail moving over the terminals roughly 262300Z-270400Z. Appears
the best threat for direct impacts from convection will be in the
KLAF area, and possibly KIND, closest to vorticity center track,
with lesser chances at the other terminals. Convective threat
should diminish by 270400Z with the passage of the vorticity tail.
Brief IFR visibility restrictions expected in the heavier cells.

Otherwise, potential exists for lower ceilings 010-015 develop
later tonight in the wake of vorticity center. Surface winds
160-190 degrees at 9-13 kts this afternoon will gradually veer to
210-240 degrees by late tonight.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Puma
NEAR TERM...Puma
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS


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