Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 300821
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
420 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WEATHER QUIET ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A
VERY WEAK WAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL ONLY LEAD TO A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AS PRECIPITATION APPEARS UNLIKELY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
LATER IN THE WEEK MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

QUIET DAY ON TAP ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE WAKE OF OVERNIGHT
FRONTAL PASSAGE. UPPED CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE
REACHED. IN ADDITION...INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUD EXPECTED
AHEAD OF SYSTEM TO SKIRT NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

ON TEMPS...NO QUIBBLE WITH CONSENSUS NUMBERS WHICH TRACK FAIRLY
WELL WITH UPSTREAM NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

MODELS AGREE ON KEEPING THE SHORT TERM DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN EURO IN BRINGING
CONVECTION INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND WILL CARRY SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THEN...BUT MORE SUBSTANTIAL POPS ARE BEST LEFT
FOR LATER PERIODS. K INDEX VALUES INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER IF ANY PRECIP DOES OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

CONSENSUS TEMP NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS. WILL BE QUITE A BIT MILDER DURING THE PERIOD IN
COMPARISON WITH RECENT DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE SOME TIMING ISSUES...NAMELY WITH WAVES
RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH CLOSER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
WHICH HAD THE ECWMF MUCH STRONGER WITH A PRIMARY SURFACE WAVE...AND
THE GFS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH WEAKER WAVES. IN ADDITION...A BLEND
IS NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE 00Z CANADIAN...ON THE
OTHER HAND...LOOKS TOO SLOW AND TOO FAR SOUTH. SO...PREFER A NON-GEM
BLEND.

THE EXTENDED SHOULD START OFF ACTIVE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES TO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL THEN DROP SOUTHEAST OVER CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE STALLING
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSED SURFACE
WAVES RIDE UP ALONG THE FRONT. WITH RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM...GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS LOOK GOOD ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S PER THE REGIONAL
BLEND. LIKELY POPS CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE FRONTAL STALLING OUT. IN
ADDITION...INSTABILITY PROGS WARRANT THUNDER CHANCES.

THE FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE WAVES PASS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...LIKELY POPS CONTINUE
TO LOOK GOOD ON FRIDAY TAPERING OFF TO CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST. WILL
ALSO LEAVE IN CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS
IN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WHICH SHOULD BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE 50S...EXCEPT IN THE LOWER 60S SUNDAY SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 300900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

TWEAKED WINDS DOWN A FEW KNOTS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SOME VFR STRATOCU WILL BE ACROSS THE TAF SITES EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THESE WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT
LEAVING BEHIND SOME HIGH CLOUDS.

MONDAY WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID CLOUD...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BACK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20KT ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...50/MK

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