Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 250944
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
544 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
The Aviation Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

High pressure will bring dry and somewhat less humid weather to
most of central Indiana today. Humidity will return for Sunday
ahead of a cold front that will trigger scattered thunderstorms
Sunday and Sunday night. Cooler and drier weather will return
early next week with quite mild weather Tuesday. Stormier weather
will return late week as low pressure and an upper level wave
track through the Great lakes and Ohio Valley.


&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...

Issued at 321 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

No significant issues here and models in good agreement.

Today...drier air on northeast flow has only slowly been
penetrating the area with most locations in the west and
southwest still seeing dewpoints hold in the middle 60s. Don`t
anticipate much change there while the rest of the area will feel
slightly better as dewpoints stay in the mid 50s to around 60.
Abundant sunshine should achieve full warming and current max
temps mid 80s to near 90 look good.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...

Issued at 321 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Forecast challenge focuses on convective Sunday...whether its
severe...as well as arrival/departure times.

The surface ridge will slowly shift to the East Coast Saturday night
and with surface flow shifting to the southeast anticipate a
slow increase in humidity Saturday night along with Min
temperatures bottoming out near MOS guidance or around 70 degrees
most places.

Question is whether any rain threat arrives before daybreak. All
models to varying degrees depict a slight RH axis tied to the old
frontal boundary slipping into western sections before daybreak
Sunday while more progressive flow and convection pushes into
northern Illinois in advance of upper trough. Outcome is chance
for thunderstorms before daybreak across west and far north
counties.

Greater threat for storms comes later in the day Sunday and have raised
pops to likely across the north. Periods of sunshine should bring
max temps back near 90. Dewpoints near 70 and approaching
trough will trigger scattered thunderstorms by early to mid
afternoon across the north that track southeast. Isolated severe
storms may be in play Sunday afternoon and evening as instability
peaks and wind fields strengthen ahead of upper trough. Conditions
for stronger storms likely a bit better for north sections where
wind fields will be stronger.

Sunday night...scattered storms...some strong...will continue to
march southeast especially through the evening hours. Similar to
recent events...slow progression of the surface trough and residual
instability likely will lead to scattered storms redevelopment
behind main initial thrust into the overnight hours. Current
min temps near 70 after a rainy evening still appear a good bet.

Monday...will still carry a low risk for storms in the morning
across the south as some instability still remains and models
hinted a weak wave in the flow to give the final push to the
front and rain threat out of the area by afternoon. Given a
relatively warm start to the day near 70...still expect max temps
of mid and upper 80s Monday with increasing afternoon sunshine as
the surface high builds in and helps to begin lowering humidity.

Monday Night...continued building in of surface high pressure
finally drops min temperatures a bit lower than weekend values.
Models indicate a couple of weak waves in the upper flow indicative
of final thrust of cooler and drier air. With weak surface
troughing reflected with these waves...expecting a few clouds
overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Ensembles continue to be in good agreement. Cool surface high
pressures should lead to below normal temperatures along with dry
weather through Wednesday night. Then, an upper trough will move
over the area and could generate a few showers or thunderstorms over
all or parts of central Indiana Thursday through Friday per the
small chance pops of the regional blend.

Afternoon highs should only reach the mid 70s north to the lower 80s
south Tuesday through Thursday. Friday looks to be a touch warmer
with highs mostly in the lower 80s. Look for overnight lows in the
50s Tuesday night and Wednesday night and mostly in the lower 60s
thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 251200Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 544 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Would not rule out very brief MVFR fog at the smaller airports at
issuance time, otherwise confidence is good that VFR conditions will
prevail today under the influence of east coast high pressure.
Should start to see some increasing AC and Cu overnight as a warm
front moves to near the Wabash Valley by 12z Sunday. Would also not
rule out a shower or thunderstorm at LAF near 12z and IND after 12z.
However, chances too low that far out to put in the TAFs.

Winds will be southeast and then south 6 knots or less.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK



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