205
FXUS65 KFGZ 240531
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1031 PM MST Thu May 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry, breezy weather continues across northern Arizona
through Saturday with the strongest winds and near critical fire
weather conditions expected Friday. Lighter winds and a noticeable
warming trend will arrive by Sunday, remaining through much of
next week.

&&

.UPDATE...Winds are starting to drop off this evening. Some cloud
development across the northern parts of the state are associated
with a trough making its way to the east. Moisture is limited to
the mid/upper levels and should remain as just clouds versus any
type of precipitation reaching the ground. Areas where the clouds
remain overnight will not be as efficient with radiational
cooling, but overall tonight will be another cool night across
the High Country. Most of the edits with the evening update were
in the sky grids and adjusting the smoke/haze grids to better
reflect where we saw prescribed burns today. Otherwise, the
forecast looks to be right on track.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /439 PM MST/...A trough to our north continues moving
eastward today and overnight. This trough will help a more
elongated shortwave trough progress across the region Friday and
Saturday. The area is expect to remain dry with precipitation well
north of Arizona. Breezy southwesterlies are expected to
strengthen tomorrow afternoon with this next system. Afternoon
gusts of 30 to 40 mph will impact much of northern Arizona. Near
critical fire weather is in the forecast, but conditions are just
below Red Flag Warning criteria with fuels borderline as well.
Regardless, practice extra caution during this windy period.
Downwind/northeast locations mainly along the Mogollon Rim will
remain a bit breezy overnight. The strongest winds will shift
eastward on Saturday and are anticipated to be a bit lighter than
Friday. Pressure gradients will gradually relax Saturday evening
with more zonal, westerly flow. However, this will be short lived
with a ridge on the way.

Sunday Onward...The aforementioned trough will shift eastward on
Sunday and will be rapidly replaced by high pressure. Models are
in good agreement at this time that a upper-level ridge will begin
building over western CONUS, persisting through much of next week.
Sunny to mostly sunny skies and the climbing pressure will allow
temperatures to follow suit. Expect temperatures near to just
above average on Sunday with afternoon highs 5 to 8 degrees above
normal next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 24/06Z through Saturday 25/06Z...Mainly VFR
conditions with pockets of MVFR conditions around KCMR and KFLG
due to smoke and haze. Light winds overnight will ramp up after
daybreak. Southwest winds at 15 to 25 knots, gusting 30 to 40
knots, will become common after 18Z before weakening during the
evening hours. Patches of blowing dust are possible around KINW.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 25/06Z through Monday 27/06Z...Mainly VFR
conditions continue. On Saturday, southwest winds at 15 to 25
knots with gusts of up to 40 knots. On Sunday, generally west
winds at 10 to 20 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tonight through Saturday...Dry and breezy weather
will continue into the coming weekend. Near critical fire weather
conditions will develop Friday and Saturday afternoon across the
Little Colorado River Valley. Minimum humidity each day will range
from 10-20% with the strongest winds gusting to 40 mph on Friday.

Sunday through Tuesday...Expect a warming and drying trend through
early next week while wind speeds decrease. Daytime humidity
will drop to 5-15% with west to southwest winds around 10-20 mph
each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola/Mazon
AVIATION...Benji
FIRE WEATHER...MCT

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff